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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

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40 to 45. For Taiwan in 1964 r is calculated at 0.02929. Let us tabulate effects on the intrinsic rate of a fall of &Fy in the birth rates at the sei ages y to y + 4. These are shown in Table 4, along with the age-spe rates. For example, the table says that a drop in the birth rate to wome age 20 to 24 equal to one birth per 1,000 (AF20 = -0.001) will result drop in r of 0.000086, whereas a drop of the birth rate to women aged 4 44 of the same 0.001 will result in a drop of 0.000046. Evidently a drc the age-specific rate is about twice as consequential in the youngest as ir oldest group.
TABLE 4
Effect on Intrinsic Rate r of a Fall in Age-Specific Birth Rate at the Several Ages, Taiwan 1964
Effect of a Fal of AF^on 1,OC
Age.y to y + 4	Observed Age-Specific Rate Fy	e-r (y + 2'/2)	5Lv	c-rO;+2'/i)5Lj
				Klo (K = 28.4 year
15-19	0.018	0.5989	474,267	0.100AF15
20-24	0.123	0.5173	471,375	0.086AF20
25-29	0.162	0.4469	467,720	0.074AF2S
30-34	0.104	0.3861	463,505	0.063AF30
35-39	0.058	0.3334	458,333	0.054AF35
40-44	0.025	0.2880	451,428	0.046AF40
Source: Author's calculations.
We should not underestimate the importance of this comparison bee of the zeros after the decimal point. A required diminution in the ultir increase results from lowering F^ by a certain amount, or from lowering by half of this amount, because half as many women are to be found al older as at the younger age.
Example of the Assessment of a Fall in Fertility
The relation is important in assessing a fall in fertility, for example tin Taiwan between 1964 and 1966. Table 5 shows the age-specific rates fa in important degree only beyond age 30, and at ages under 25 they rise the 2-year period. The net effect is downward, the Gross Reproduction 1 going from 2.45 to 2.32. However, the drop in the intrinsic rate r was proy isomparison of Canada and the United States for 1967 shows that the Net Reproduction Rate does not tell the whole story of replacement. Canada's NRR was slightly higher than that of the United States, 1.216 against 1.205. The Canadian girl child just born could expect to bear slightly more girl children than the United States girl child at 1967 rates. But the Canadian would marry older and have her children later within marriage; her length of generation— a measure something like the average age of childbearing-was 27.3 years against the United States 26.2 years. This means a more rapid turnover of generations in the United States.